[Unistats] AVCC Media Release - A SURGE in 2002 enrolments !!!

[Ted Gallop]

Compatriots,

I gather you have all become aware of the AVCC media release of 6th May:
"SURGE IN STUDENT ENROLMENTS"
I hope you are also aware that this supposed 'surge' is based on a
comparison of apples with oranges.
i.e. The data compare March 31st 2001 estimates with August 31 2002
estimates, and says there is a very large increase!

The specifications set by DEST for the preliminary estimates were quite
different in each year.
The 2001 specs were for the expected annual numbers and load as at 31st
March 
(basically the estimated first submission load file total) (the same as past
years' specs).

The 2002 specs were for the expected annual numbers and load as at 31st
August
(basically the estimated second submission load file total) (changed from
prev years).

The difference is that the 2002 specs include second semester intake numbers
and load, which was not included in previous year  estimates. The AVCC has
said that there is little difference and it doesn't matter. 
The Australian newspaper, (Patrick Lawnham) thinks they are comparisons of
March 31 2001 with March 31 2002. (I guess because both of the estimates
were submitted at March 31 each year).

Curtin has a significant mid year intake and our 'year' load readings are
always significantly higher at August 31st compared with March 31.  A
comparison of a 31/Mar/2001 figure with 31/Aug/2002 figure is totally
inappropriate and  misleading in my view.

Any comments ?



Ted Gallop,
Manager, Strategic Information Support.
University Planning Office.
Curtin University of Technology

Phone 	   08 9266 2246
Facsimile 08 9266 2109
email t.gallop@curtin.edu.au

CRICOS Provider Code: 00301J

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