[Unistats] AVCC Media Release - A SURGE in 2002 enrolments !!!

[Sue Clark]

Colleagues,
I agree with all of the below and have advised my VC accordingly.
I will also be at the DEST-feast on Friday and would be interested in 
discussing this and various issues.  Because I live in the "Outer Rim", I 
will be travelling to Canberra tomorrow and will not receive any email 
after 6.30pm tonight.
Sue Clark.


At 09:21 AM 08-05-2002 +0800, Robert Rispoli wrote:
>Preliminary Estimates Table 1 for 2002 was an absolute joke.
>I told DEST it was a joke at the beginning of the year when I read the
>specs for it.
>I was ignored.
>I estmate ECU's figures were well over 1000 bodies higher than they
>would have been if we'd used 2001 specs for the table.
>
>Anyway, many of us will be in Canberra in two days time and we can get
>the ball rolling with this one!
>
>
>
> >>> Lachlan Murdoch <Lachlan.Murdoch@unisa.edu.au> 8/05/2002 8:32:44
> >>>
>Dear all
>
>Yes this is my understanding as well, and our uni has a large mid year
>intake
>of overseas students which has contributed to the apparent 'surge in
>enrolments'. Unfortunately these AVCC figures have been used in the
>media and
>in fact appear on page 1 of today's HES. The outcome is that that the
>AVCC have
>effectively misrepresented the state of the Higher Ed system, which
>has
>implications for everyone from the Minister down.
>
>On a more personal level, it has meant a lot of time and effort
>explaining to
>all concerned that the comparison is not valid!
>Perhaps a retraction from the AVCC is in order??
>
>
>cheers
>
>Lachlan
>
>Lachlan Murdoch
>Acting Director
>Planning Unit
>University of South Australia
>Phone: 08 8302 0377
>Fax:      08 8302 0222
>email:    lachlan.murdoch@unisa.edu.au
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Ted Gallop [mailto:T.Gallop@curtin.edu.au]
>Sent: Tuesday, May 07, 2002 7:27 PM
>To: 'unistats@central.murdoch.edu.au'
>Subject: [Unistats] AVCC Media Release - A SURGE in 2002 enrolments
>!!!
>
>
>Compatriots,
>
>I gather you have all become aware of the AVCC media release of 6th
>May:
>"SURGE IN STUDENT ENROLMENTS"
>I hope you are also aware that this supposed 'surge' is based on a
>comparison of apples with oranges.
>i.e. The data compare March 31st 2001 estimates with August 31 2002
>estimates, and says there is a very large increase!
>
>The specifications set by DEST for the preliminary estimates were
>quite
>different in each year.
>The 2001 specs were for the expected annual numbers and load as at
>31st
>March
>(basically the estimated first submission load file total) (the same as
>past
>years' specs).
>
>The 2002 specs were for the expected annual numbers and load as at
>31st
>August
>(basically the estimated second submission load file total) (changed
>from
>prev years).
>
>The difference is that the 2002 specs include second semester intake
>numbers
>and load, which was not included in previous year  estimates. The AVCC
>has
>said that there is little difference and it doesn't matter.
>The Australian newspaper, (Patrick Lawnham) thinks they are comparisons
>of
>March 31 2001 with March 31 2002. (I guess because both of the
>estimates
>were submitted at March 31 each year).
>
>Curtin has a significant mid year intake and our 'year' load readings
>are
>always significantly higher at August 31st compared with March 31.  A
>comparison of a 31/Mar/2001 figure with 31/Aug/2002 figure is totally
>inappropriate and  misleading in my view.
>
>Any comments ?
>
>
>
>Ted Gallop,
>Manager, Strategic Information Support.
>University Planning Office.
>Curtin University of Technology
>
>Phone      08 9266 2246
>Facsimile 08 9266 2109
>email t.gallop@curtin.edu.au
>
>CRICOS Provider Code: 00301J
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_____________________________________________________
Susan Clark
Manager, Statistics
Resources Office
James Cook University
Townsville  QLD  4811
Phone:  07 4781 5954
Fax:    07 4781 4035
Email:  Susan.Clark@jcu.edu.au
http://www.jcu.edu.au/office/Planning_and_Statistics/index.html